[Daydream believer] You can see "the world in 100 years time as climate change creates it"

There are about two dozen models for projecting climate change from the world's most prestigious research institutes, so there is no need for small research institutes or individuals to create their own models now. Otherwise, it would be impossible if they didn't have access to a supercomputer.


When I was an expert for Japan's development agency ten years ago, I taught the Indonesian Meteorological Agency how to use climate projection models. We would download the data, analyse the rainfall and temperature information, then cut it by the globe's region where we wanted it to appear, and produce the image information. We installed the necessary software on a reasonably powerful Linux server and ran them from a command-line interface. Depending on the situation and the information needed, we would have to run the server's calculations for a day. Now you don't have to do that. Anyone can easily extract the climate change information they need, where they need it.


The University of Cape Town in South Africa, the University of Tsukuba in Japan, and NASA have also created systems that make it easy to process climate projection as image information. I use NOAA's cloud service, which is worthy of the US Weather Service.




https://psl.noaa.gov/ipcc/cmip5/


In the left panel, you can choose the temperature or rainfall information you want to predict, choose RCP 8.5 or 4.5, and choose the monthly or annual average you want to predict. The difference between RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 is that 8.5 is "a world without any climate change measures" and 4.5 is "an average world with some measures".





For example, the rainfall over the three months of the rainy season from December to February is shown below. The bottom right graph shows the difference between the projection average of the next 100 years and historical data, so it is the clearest indication of a shift from climate change. According to this information, if no action is taken on climate change, the rainfall over the next 100 years in Java is expected to increase by between 20mm and 40mm per 3-month rainy season. Rainfall projections are even more uncertain than temperature projections because they are "further" projections calculated on the basis of the results of temperature projections.


The model is also based on CMIP5, which in the RCP8.5 world of CMIP5 calls into question the use of RCP8.5 as a 'business as usual' scenario, as it requires a significant return to coal as an energy source. The previously mentioned WRI report also suggests that even countries, including China and India, will be using less coal. (Indonesia is still increasing its use of coal...)

https://www.su-re.co/post/daydream-believer-best-and-worst-of-agriculture-sector-toward-2030-goals


Furthermore, the reduction in energy use as a result of COVID 19 could impact the future. This mismatch is why IPCC is developing a new CMIP6, which will take into account the scenarios' socio-economic trajectory. The shift to CMIP6 will probably lead to a downward revision of the hindsight projections.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0599-1


Well, there is a lot of uncertainty, but why not explore the world of climate change with this cloud service and imagine what it will be like 100 years from now?

 

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