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Indonesian Net Zero and Electricity Plan in 2021-2030

Hi, everyone!

Welcome, October!

2021 will end in less than 90 days. Do you have any plans for the end of year holiday? :)

Today, I will post one of the headline news last week: RUPTL PLN in Indonesia.

If you follow blogs, you will find several blogs about climate change and Paris Agreement. I will start with the Indonesian Policy in climate change solutions.

To meet Indonesia's commitment to Paris Agreement, the Indonesian Government, led by the Ministry of National Development Planning (BAPPENAS) and the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (KLHK), has National Action Plan for Greenhouse Gas Reduction (RAN-GRK) and The National Action Plan on Climate Change (RAN-API). RAN-GRK propose mitigation actions in five priority areas (land-based and non-land-based), such as forestry and peatland, agriculture, waste management, energy and transport, and industry. These programs were established in 2011 and 2014. After signing the Paris Agreement, the Indonesian Government published Indonesia NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution) in 2016.

If you follow climate change issues, you will know that the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP26, will be held in Glasgow, Scotland, from 31 October to 12 November 2021. In this event, countries are expected to propose new commitments to the net-zero plan. Besides, additional funding for developing countries will be proposed at the conference, keeping decades of promises that have not been kept. In addition, the role of the carbon market that has not yet been discussed will be continued along with state responsibility for the damage caused by global warming. The discussion on the carbon market can be found everywhere now :D

So, the question is, how about the net-zero plan in Indonesia?

To answer this question, the Indonesian Government drafted Long-term Strategy on Low Carbon and Climate Resilience 2050 (LTS-LCCR 2050) in 2021.

Based on (Mongabay 2021), the LTS document has three mitigation emission scenarios: i) current policy or CPOS, ii) transitions or TRNS, and (iii) compatible with the Paris Agreement (LCCP). If we check those three scenarios, only LCCP trajectories reduce emissions compared to the current condition—while TRNS and CPOS increase emissions. In addition to this document, which is the most recent, the Indonesian Government has also sent the Updated NDC Republic of Indonesia to the UNFCC on July 21, 2021. However, the document does not strengthen the existing ambitions of mitigating emissions by 2030 but strengthens adaptation efforts and clarifies mitigation efforts. You might find several articles in Greenpeace, Mongabay, or Walhi about this concern.

Since my background is sustainable energy, I keep following all updated information related to the Indonesian energy transition while I also keep learning the land-based information. So, let me share some findings of this sector.

My questions are:

How about the energy transition in Indonesia in this net-zero plan?

The question is, when will Indonesia apply the coal phase-out scenario?

Three weeks ago, there were some discussions in some of my WhatsApp groups regarding the Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) 2021–2030 of PT PLN (State-owned Electricity Company). The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources uses this plan to reference the government providing electricity within the next 10 years. This time, the roadmap will also prioritize the development of new and renewable energy.

A few months ago, there was no decision when Indonesia would apply coal removal in the power plants. Then, one of the Ministers said that Indonesia would achieve net-zero and no coal in the power plants by 2060. That's why before publishing this RUPTL, PLN announced in May that they would start shutting down coal power plants and phasing them all out by 2055, amounting to 50 gigawatts of capacity. Then they planned to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2060. Then, one of the Ministers said that Indonesia would achieve net-zero and no coal in the power plants by 2060.

However, in May 2021, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), the first scenario is the 2030 plan. By then, the earliest plants to be retired in 2030 will have been in service for 50 to 60 years. These plants, by industry standards, will be decommissioned. However, they also identified at least 44 new coal plants with a total capacity of nearly 16 GW that are expected to be built between 2021 and 2030.

So, what kind of information that we can find in the new RUPTL?

National Energy Mix in 2021-2030 based on RUPTL document

BBM: fossil fuel

EBT: New and Renewable Energy

This RUPTL supports more emissions reduction because the addition of new and renewable energy plants is 51.6% larger than the addition of fossil generators, which only amounted to 48.4%. For the target for additional power plants of 40.6 GW, new renewable energy generating capacity reaches 20.9 GW, and the capacity of fossil energy generation is only 19.6 gigawatts. PLN will be focusing on supply and service, while private companies (IPP - Independent Power Producers) will build renewable power plants.

So, my question is, could you identify the hindering factor in this net-zero plan?

Thank you for reading. See you next blog ^^

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Oct 10, 2021

I could think some from socio-economic, policy, and technological dimensions.

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