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[climate change] Coffee price will go up because of climate change

I have to talk about the sustainability of coffee tomorrow, so I've been going through the material I have at hand. It seems that coffee will be affected by climate change, and economically, more than any other crops.

Rikolto is an international NGO supporting agriculture. When we organised a short course for the University of Tokyo, Rikolto gave a presentation including anecdotal evidence that coffee demand will rise in the future.

Demand for coffee to double by 2050 World Coffee Research in the Washington Post
Millennials (those born between 1982 and 2000) continue to embrace the coffee culture. This group consumes 44% of all coffee in the US. (Bloomberg)
14% of millennials drink an espresso beverage almost every day. (National Coffee Association)
In India, coffee consumption is growing rapidly. Between 2012 and 2016, the market grew at a compound annual growth rate of 15%. (Mintel)
Two out of three Canadians drink a cup of coffee every day. Of those who drink coffee, they consume an average of 3.2 cups a day (Oh Canada!)

Coffee is already the second most traded commodity in the world after crude oil. As the demand for renewable energy increases, will the volume of oil trade decrease and coffee become the most traded commodity in the world?

de Sousa, K., van Zonneveld, M., Holmgren, M. et al. The future of coffee and cocoa agroforestry in a warmer Mesoamerica. Sci Rep 9, 8828 (2019). Available at:

And according to this article in Nature, coffee is highly vulnerable to climate change, more vulnerable than cocoa, the raw material for chocolate. For this reason, NGOs and other support organisations in Central America help shift crops from coffee to cocoa. This actually seems to be an effective way of adapting to climate change, but it may reduce the amount of coffee produced.

Demand will increase, and supply will decrease. Will this mean that the price of coffee will rise? You might as well drink a lot of coffee while you can (^^;)

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