Climate Risk Assessment: How to Identify and Manage Climate Risks in Indonesia

Climate change creates uncertainty for communities, businesses, and agricultural systems.

Changes in rainfall, temperature, and extreme weather can affect crop production, infrastructure, water availability, and livelihoods.

However, climate risks are not the same everywhere.

A coastal community may face flooding and sea-level rise, while farmers in mountainous areas may experience changing rainfall patterns and temperature-related crop stress.

Understanding these differences is an important starting point for effective climate adaptation.

This is where climate risk assessment becomes essential.

By combining climate information with local knowledge, organizations and communities can better understand potential impacts and identify practical responses.

What Is Climate Risk Assessment?

Climate risk assessment is a systematic process for identifying, analyzing, and evaluating risks associated with climate change.

Its purpose is to understand how climate hazards may affect people, ecosystems, infrastructure, and economic activities.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate-related risks arise through interactions between hazards, exposure, and vulnerability.

These three components are fundamental to climate risk assessment.

1. Climate Hazards

Hazards are potentially damaging climate-related events or trends.

Examples include droughts, extreme rainfall, heatwaves, flooding, and sea-level rise.

2. Exposure

Exposure refers to people, assets, infrastructure, or ecosystems located where climate hazards may occur.

For example, agricultural land exposed to drought conditions may face potential production losses.

3. Vulnerability

Vulnerability describes how susceptible an exposed system is to harm.

A farming household with limited access to irrigation, savings, or climate information may be more vulnerable to rainfall variability.

Understanding these components helps explain why the same climate hazard can produce different outcomes across communities.

Why Is Climate Risk Assessment Important in Indonesia?

Indonesia's diverse geography creates different patterns of climate exposure and vulnerability.

Climate-related challenges can affect agriculture, fisheries, water systems, infrastructure, and local economic activities.

For farmers, changes in rainfall timing may influence planting decisions and crop productivity.

For businesses, extreme weather can disrupt transportation, supply chains, and operational activities.

Local governments also need climate information to support infrastructure planning and community preparedness.

Climate risk assessment helps stakeholders identify priorities before committing resources to adaptation interventions.

How to Conduct a Climate Risk Assessment

An effective assessment follows a structured process connecting scientific information with local conditions.

Step 1: Define the Assessment Scope

Begin by identifying what needs to be assessed.

This might include:

• An agricultural community

• A business operation

• A supply chain

• A specific landscape

• A local infrastructure project

Clearly defining the scope helps determine which climate variables and stakeholders are relevant.

Step 2: Identify Relevant Climate Hazards

Examine the climate conditions that may affect the selected location or activity.

Relevant information might include historical rainfall, temperature trends, extreme weather records, and future climate projections.

Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) provides climate information, including rainfall projections.

These projections can help inform longer-term planning, although their spatial resolution and uncertainty must be considered.

Step 3: Assess Exposure and Vulnerability

Identify who or what may be affected by the selected hazards.

For agricultural communities, assessment questions may include:

• Which crops are sensitive to rainfall changes?

• Which farming areas experience water shortages?

• Do farmers have access to climate information?

• What resources are available to respond to crop losses?

Community interviews and field observations can complement scientific datasets.

Step 4: Evaluate and Prioritize Risks

Assess the potential consequences of identified climate hazards.

Risk prioritization may consider hazard likelihood, potential severity, exposure, vulnerability, and uncertainty.

A risk matrix can help organize preliminary findings, but it should not replace detailed analysis where major investments or safety decisions are involved.

Step 5: Develop and Monitor Adaptation Measures

Use the assessment to identify appropriate responses.

Potential measures include improved water management, crop diversification, climate information services, and ecosystem-based adaptation.

Monitoring helps determine whether these measures remain effective as environmental and social conditions change.

Climate Risk Assessment Example: Coffee Farming

Consider a hypothetical coffee-growing community experiencing increasingly unpredictable rainfall.

A climate risk assessment could examine three questions.

What hazards are relevant?

Changing rainfall patterns, higher temperatures, and prolonged dry periods may affect coffee production.

Who is vulnerable?

Smallholder farmers with limited water access or financial reserves may be particularly sensitive to agricultural losses.

What adaptation options are available?

Potential responses include agroforestry, adjusted farm management, climate information services, and livelihood diversification.

The appropriate combination depends on local ecological conditions, farming practices, and available resources.

How su-re.co Connects Climate Data With Farmer Decisions

At su-re.co, climate research is connected with practical adaptation and community education.

Through its Think-Tank, su-re.co works on climate adaptation, mitigation, and resilience research across different sectors.

Its field-based initiatives demonstrate how climate information can support local decision-making.

Climate Field Schools

su-re.co has collaborated with BMKG and the Stockholm Environment Institute on climate field school activities.

These initiatives help farmers interpret weather information and consider its implications for agricultural decisions.

Read more in Building Capacity of Farmers to Adapt with Climate Change through Climate Field School.

Ecosystem-Based Adaptation

Through the EECCLiRe project, su-re.co and its partners integrated climate field schools with agroforestry, local knowledge, and ecosystem-based adaptation.

The project focused on strengthening resilience among coffee-farming communities in Bali and Flores.

This approach illustrates the importance of connecting climate information with practical responses rather than treating assessment as an isolated technical exercise.

These activities support climate-informed decisions, although they should not be interpreted as evidence that every project involved a comprehensive formal climate risk assessment.

Turning Climate Risk Knowledge Into Action

Climate risk assessment helps communities and organizations move from identifying environmental threats toward understanding their potential consequences.

An effective process combines scientific data, local experience, vulnerability analysis, and practical adaptation planning.

For Indonesia, this connection is important because climate risks vary across regions, sectors, and communities.

Interested in connecting climate research with practical adaptation planning?

Explore su-re.co's Think-Tank to learn how research and community knowledge can support climate-informed sustainability initiatives.