Hello, this is Cynthia from the Think team.
As the continuous part from my previous blog (Climate-related risks in Energy Sector), I want to share climate vulnerability for the energy sector in Indonesia. Thanks to our Founder, Tak's comment on my previous blog, I think it is worth recalling a framework for vulnerability assessment. Many international organizations like UN Agencies utilize this framework to assess the climate vulnerability for adaptation projects. As Tak once shared the vulnerability assessment to climate change here ([Climate change] Vulnerability to climate change)
So, how about the vulnerability of the energy sector? We once conducted a projection on climate change impacts on Indonesia from precipitation under climate scenario RCP 4.5 as shown below. Referring to Tak's explanation regarding the vulnerability framework, this is the exposure or climate stressor.
Looking at the precipitation deviation above, it reminds me of how Indonesia depends highly on hydropower as one of the preferable renewables together with geothermal, solar, and bioenergy. Focusing on hydropower, there is a study by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources regarding the potential of hydropower from micro until large scale.
So, comparing those two maps, we can conclude that Indonesia should anticipate water availability in developing hydropower projects because many areas would get drier in addition to the competition of water use with other sectors. On the other hand, as a coal-intensive region, most of the coal power plants are remotely located from the mining and in coastal areas. This implies a risk in supply in case of extreme weather as I shared in the last blog.
So, how we can increase the adaptive capacity for this sector?
A study by World Bank in 2011 explored a set of strategies to adapt to the climate change impacts shown below.
Diversification and decentralized system of energy could be beneficial to reduce the vulnerability and ensure the energy demand is still met despite increasing extreme weather. A decentralized system would reduce the probability of suffering large-scale outages when centralized power systems are compromised (might be more flexible and adaptive). Climate information is also essential to support decision-making for energy project development and anticipate the unpredictibility of climate change.
So, could you share any climate change impacts that you observe in your area?