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[su-re venture] There are no positive or negative tipping phenomena for the energy transition

Today I had a company retreat, and a friend from the Ministry of Development Planning came to visit me, and we discussed case study synergies in the European Commission Tipping+ project. In the meantime, I've been chatting with carpenters in rapid succession, answering emails and arranging tomorrow's meeting, submitted a proposal, and it's already midnight. Everyone should go to bed early.

Anyway, as a case study of the European Commission Tipping+ project, explained about coal and biogas power generation in Indonesia. We compared this with the cases of Spain, Poland and Austria, and the common denominator is that huge companies, state-owned or ex-state-owned fossil energy companies, are involved in all cases. These large companies are not very flexible and have a lot of decision-making power, so their activities are seen as mainstream in this case. If we proceed statistically, the opinions of the oppressed groups might be erased by their arguments. This is why it makes sense to analyse narratives. Narrative analysis is about identifying the person making the narrative and focusing on how they arrived at that result rather than the result.

Before this project, I was working on a research project for the European Commission Green-win. We were looking for cases of win-win relationships, where some people "win" and some people lose. In this project, we are studying the tipping phenomenon (the phenomenon of rapid social change). Whether that change is positive or negative depends on the position of the person speaking the narrative.

For example, 100 years ago, people who worked in coal mining towns had the social importance and critical mass to express their opinions. They were not in an oppressed position. But because of climate change and air pollution, people who work in the coal mines are not only not seen in a good light, but they are also oppressed for not working hard enough to get out of the mines. In other words, converting to renewable energy is a social change that may be positive for some people but negative for others. And the people who see the loss of the mines as negative are not only the people who run the big companies, but also the small miners who are already in an oppressive position.

By hearing the narratives of these people, we can see another side of this issue. The future of coal to renewable energy may remain unchanged. But by analysing people's narratives of how that shift happened, it may be possible to create another change. And we can dispense with the ludicrous notion that the change will be positive for everyone.

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